Early Season Breeding Reminder

[Knightmare]

Be sure and capture screen shots of your bargain breedings in these early weeks of the year. Sire prices in the next couple of months are typically lower than any other time of year. Freshman sires tend to fluctuate the most so get a screen shot especially if you are using a freshman sire and you have the BBRS in mind when you are breeding the runner.

For example looks like Quality Road is below 100 points at the end of the week ( he was used up early this week) but he will not be a less than 100 point sire for long and could be a 200+ point sire by May. So with out a screen shot, a Quality Road offspring is not running in this series this year.

This really goes for any bargain breeding early in the year where prices are typically cheaper. You do not have to send me the info but at least have the screen shot so if the runner turns out to be a good one there are no issues getting them entered into the series. Thanks

[dragnil]

Question about sire tickers, Morgan.

Are they related in any way to the ability of the sire, or are they purely determined by sim popularity?

Some prices are very strange, and I don't mean just now. An example is A.P. Arrow.
At 290 points, he is the most expensive sire standing in South Africa at the moment.
Compare him to Fort Wood (126), Jet Master (158) and Western Winter (124).

In real life, the latter three sires are our best by some margin by all measures. Their stud fees are R150k, R150k and R125k respectively.
A.P. Arrow on the other hand is a new and unproven sire with no runners yet on the track and stands for R25k.

In the sim in 2010, A.P. Arrow had 79 foals, Fort Wood 17, Jet Master 14, Western Winter 28!

Hmm, I just noticed that Jet Master isn't available for 2 y/o breeding for some strange reason, amongst a host of other errors. That's a big one though. I'm off to mail Mike.

[Knightmare]

Mike's method of sire pricing might be one of the great mysteries of the sim.

It is a combination of sire ability and popularity. I will use the sire Pivotal as an example. I did a Breeding Corner article on him in 2005. At the time he was a 30-40 point sire, a bargain sire. After researching him a bit he was one of the worlds leading sires of G1 winners. I brought this to Mike's attention. He immediately gave Pivotal a bump. He went from 30-40 points to 120 points virtually over night. He was there about a year before being bumped again and you can really see the progression in sim popularity as well. He went from 45 runners bred in 2006 to 122 in 2007 and has been at the level ever since.

Young sires are the toughest to judge. They tend to be really expensive or really cheap with little in between. I think their costs and ability is usually tied to their sire. In this case A.P. Arrow 's sire A.P. Indy probably meant his initial costs were in the same area as Fort Wood, Jet Master and Western Winter (around 120 ish) and his initial popularity, he was used 79 times as a freshman sire, pushed his price up. So it is very possible he out performs Fort Wood (17), Jet Master (14) and Western Winter(28) in the early stages and if his real life production is not great he will drop off significantly. His popularity will likely wane as people move on to new freshman sires and his real life offspring have yet to hit the track.

I think you have a better shot at a graded runner using Fort Wood, Jet Master or Western Winter over A.P. Arrow however A.P.Arrow will have better production if he continues to get used 4 times more than the other sires.

It always peaks my interest when you see a sire whose costs are 80-140 points who produce like 10-20 runners a year. These lower middle tier sires are plenty capable of producing stakes winners but are underused in the sim. They are producing stakes winners in real life and sometimes produce really nice runners.

Quiet American is an example. He usually produces multiple stakes winners and even graded stakes winners every year. He produced Real Quiet a near Triple crown winner and had 2 G1 winners in real life in 2010 but was bred 15 times in the sim in 2010.

Montbrook is another sire i cant understand why he does not produce more in the sim or get used more in the sim. He is not a top notch sire but a very solid sire capable of multiple stakes winners. Maybe he gets a little boost with Big Drama winning the Breeders Cup sprint but he usually produces some nice runners in real life like Snuck In, Trust N Luck, Out of the Box, Shake You Down, Chapel Royal. However he does nothing in the sim, he has been used only 10 times in each of the last 2 years.

[dragnil]

Thanks, that's a great explanation. I'll have to study it in detail.

Your example of Pivotal is an eye-opener.

Regarding Gr1 winners, Jet Master was second best worldwide in 2010. He ended with 6 individual Gr1 winners of 8 Gr1 races. Only Galileo did better (8 winners of 10 races). For Gr1/2/3 winners, Jet Master was 15th in the world with 9 winners of 13, right behind Pivotal with 10 winners of 13 and Dynaformer (9 winners of 15), and ahead of Giant's Caueway (9 winners of 10).

Maybe Mike's new sire tool he's hinted at will help us get the likes of Quiet American and Montbrook properly recognised, though a lot seems to depend on educating the userbase.

[Knightmare]

Its hard to get sim breeders to use a Quiet American over my favorite whipping boy Grand Slam. Grand Slam has not produced a G1 winner since Visionaire in 2008 and that might be his only North American G1 winner. While he ranks in the top 30 on the over all list he only has 2 graded winners this year. Thats less than Muttakddim(6), Unusual Heat (5), Montbrook(4), Quiet American(3), Cactus Ridge(3), Concerto(3). you can see why I think he is the most over rated sire in sim history as his end of week price is 206 points.

He gets used 100 times a year in the sim and produced 10+ stakes winners and 2-3 graded winners every crop until the last two crops. They are young but hopefully they are indicating his ability has been greatly reduced.

Part of his top 30 ranking is he has the 6th most active runners of sires on the list, he had 142 winners with only 2 graded stakes winners. Unusual Heat had 62 winners with 4 graded winners. Montbrook had 56 winner 4 graded winners. There are probably a few sires like this and because their price is 200+ points plus people just use them. Its disappointing.

[lebowski00]

BARGAIN TIME!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOO HOOOO!!!

Been creating loads of bargains with papers! I think I did nine using sires such as KANTHAROS, MIDSHIPS, MALIBU MOONSHINE, COAL PLAY, and ALEXANDROS.

I am hoping I can buy at least two bargain bred maidens once the two year old racing begins. If I do I will post the passwords here.

[teejay]

I've bred a few myself, only kept papers for one because i used a freshman, the others won't need proof cuz they were pretty damn cheap.